Manchester Chamber of Commerce is working on a Vision for Manchester for 2050. However, let’s hear what they have to say for the short to medium term regarding the economy. Christian Spence reminds us that the Quarterly Economic Breakfast is the largest and longest running survey in the UK. Historically the survey has predicted the two recessions in the 1990’s and 2000’s when most were either blind or deaf. There were six main areas of figures presented to an audience of the chambers members on the 30th September 2016.

* UK Demand

* International Demand

* Labour Market

* Confidence & Investment

* Cost & Prices

* Brexit & Future International Trade

It is clear with the new government that direction is still not clear but we know Brexit will take place under Teresa Mays leadership. New departments have been set up to handle our exit under Liam Fox, David Davis and Boris Johnson with a monumental task ahead of them. The big fundamental challenge will be to manage the transition of our exit and unwrap 40 years of EU control in a realistic timeline. Confidence would appear to be back in the economy after the initial shock of the vote on that historic day and the work starts now.

Initial thoughts are that larger organisations are currently feeling the impact greater than SME’s in their working environments. We must remember that many organisations will see little if any impact on their business environment, it is business as usual. Results across sectors are variable as you might expect with oil prices being a major influence on certain industries. Consumers on the whole remain confident; construction remains strong with growth in manufacturing and services slowing down.

There are many big choices to be made – the single market, trade deals, movement of people, when do we activate article 50? This is when we will see the real change in the economic climate across Europe and the UK and we will start to see the detail of any deal. Article 50 is not likely to be triggered before Jan/Feb next year but the smart money is on after the elections in both France and Germany. However, for now the pipeline for construction is looking very strong but there are still massive challenges on skills and attracting new people.

Alex Davies talked about the mixed messages and language being spoken concerning Brexit which is not helping the debate moving forward. There is not a lot of accurate information but a great deal of rhetorical spoken by both sides as the debate rumbles on until we receive that clarity. Four main options were outlined as possible routes forward for new relationships with the EU:-

* World Trade Organisation type deal

* Bespoke deal for UK interests

* Bilateral deal with other countries

* EEA/EFTA deal which exists now for us to adopt

Alex gave an overview, cutting through all the noise, to give a view on what “Hard & Soft” deals may look like in the future. He stressed that it was not Tariffs that were the main concern, but Regulation which will have the biggest impact on trade for the UK.

There are some big questions that need to be answered and thought about in great detail and time is needed to give them all due consideration:

1. Where should we be in the future?

2. How are we going to get there?

3. What will it look like?

4. What then will be our next steps?

5. Do it all in a measured manner with all our partners around the world.

The UK can once again become a World Leader.